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If it can spin a story that surly and expensive human drivers are soon to be replaced with electrons, that will be very reassuring to Wall Street.

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This is not to say that there has been no progress on self-driving vehicles of many types. I had a discussion on this recently with reader Chris X Edwards we Xs stick together who works for Buffalo Automation , a company in Buffalo, NY working on self-driving ships. Now this makes a lot of sense to me given less maritime traffic and wide sea lanes.

I especially like the idea of self-docking boats. Note how these types of businesses avoid the idiot driver problem completely. A lot of potential there if we can just get over that idiot driver hurdle. Caterpillar, a big agricultural equipment manufacturer, was worried about the loss of farm workers and looking for a way to make equipment that could drive itself.

So they hired an engineer working on neural nets and cobbled together a system built on a Macintosh II that actually worked. It was self-training and could figure out the field — any field of any size or shape — and determine how to most efficiently harvest the crop, typically corn or wheat. So they had to figure something else to do with that self-learning, yield-optimizing technology. Do you think self driving cars will mostly do away with the market for individually owned cars? Plus rideshare solves the problem of who is liable. These bottom-up applications will lead the way in the market.

Eliminating the 18 wheeler driver would make the highways safer and transportation costs cheaper. The deliberate process we call reasoning is, I believe, the thinnest veneer of human thought, effective only because it is supported by this much older and much more powerful, though usually unconscious, sensorimotor knowledge.

We are all prodigious olympians in perceptual and motor areas, so good that we make the difficult look easy. Abstract thought, though, is a new trick, perhaps less than thousand years old. We have not yet mastered it. It is not all that intrinsically difficult; it just seems so when we do it. In two Carnegie Mellon robotics professors wrote software and installed a desktop in a Pontiac minivan, which then drove itself across the US achieving I firmly believe self-driving cars will never take off.

An assisting driver in a test of a self-driving car was charged with manslaughter when the car killed a pedestrian. The autonomous car could not be held liable which means even if there was a software flaw, the car company cannot be held liable. Imagine how cool it would be if you could have your car activate, leave your driveway and pick you up at the airport. Self-driving cars cannot exceed the speed limit. This means that on roads where people regularly exceed the speed limit, the cars become a liability for not keeping up with the speed of traffic. Nobody wants to buy a car where they get passed by other drivers.

If you look into the restrictions for hazmat, a driver can only leave the truck unattended when parked in a special DOT-approved lot. Furthermore, things break on trucks and I am unaware of any self-driving truck that can do predictions regarding flat tires, drive train failure or a host of other issues drivers face today and can be ticketed if they happen.

Self-driving vehicles can be bullied. A pedestrian stepping into traffic to intentionally stop all traffic can shut down any roadway. If a vehicle can be bullied into being stopped, it can be robbed. They are professionals with lot of driving experience and they are very safe on the road something like air traffic — extremely reliable but when on rare occasions something happens than the public gets wrong perception. Professional truck drivers are not the problem on the road — morons and teenagers are. You made so many claims that could be solved over time with policy or other technology changes.

Driving is a privilege, not a right.

Driving in the Dark: Ten Propositions About Prediction and National Security

If they had something unexpected happen, they will send a signal out to an automated tow truck or clean up crew. In cases of an accident, redirected traffic will still go faster than it does now, as it will prevent rubber necking. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news. Tomek: Here ya go… I predict Mineservers will be delivered autonomously. Get in line or get off the road. Exclamation point! There is a lesson to be learned from the latest Boeing Max stick pusher crashes.

Driving in the Dark: Ten Propositions About Prediction and National Security

Boeing used an automatic piloting safety system, first to allow flawed design attaching larger engines to a plane that was design for smaller ones instead of redesigning and re-certifying it , and then to get a marketing advantage by hiding essential safety information from the FAA, the airlines and the pilots making the information available, to pilots would have obliged the FAA to mandate training which could increase the cost of ownership to the airlines for each plane by hundred of thousands if not millions per plane.

Some of that money of course ended up as bonuses paid to Boeing executives and as shareholders profits. We see defective products that cost lives Ralph Nader should be looking at Boeing and companies that make most of their profits from introduction of defective product in monopolistic markets any one can guess who? Some of what hold technology back have to do with laws and legal standard.

Changing the legal approach will direct more resources to technology and technologists that can solve problems rather than business manipulators who redirect resources to market manipulation. Manipulation that conflicts with US laws related to the free and fair market.

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A legal shift can accelerate innovation by holding protection from defective technologies and allow free-er competition. Boeing would have spend the resources on redesign and instead of manipulating the market using improvised technology and would have ended up with a better plane and higher profits not mentioning life and losses saved. Anyone can see a connection to the computer industry?

This topic reads like mutual boosterism. I have no interest in Cingelys upsellign of himself or third parties trying to leverage.

The idea of a lounge on wheels experience plus all the emerging possibilities for social policy is really amazing. I note Cringely is completely tone deaf with all of this. There are also opportunities with Universal Basic Income and similar schemes plus a whole lot of other subtle interctions economically which Cringely is completely absent with. This includes such topics as wealth sharing enabling societies to be defined more by how they live their lives than crude calculations such as work and hourly rate.

For a lot of reasons the EU can set the lead. Because of urban planning and georgraphy an extremely large percentage of single owner vehicles can very easily be replaced by fleets of shared ownership either via co-operative or corporate arrangements. This straddles the line between taxi and bus and vehicle sharing. Almost all car ownership could disappear overnight and I anticipate the morning after people will wonder why they never did it before as it will be very natural. Pretty much every ICE car in private ownership could be traded in and recycled overnight.

This solves the hazard problem. How many cars clog the roads just to ferry children to school?

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Two car families not only for carting Little Emporers about but for work and shopping? Having a care just to avoid being raped or ten minutes of bloody freedom? Many businesses especially in the EU are better of remaining private and in some cases remain under the control of the original founding family holding simply because it avoids many of the pitfalls of American style IPOs and Wall Street behaviour.

Seriously not impressed by this prediction. I have literally read multiple articles in the past month, from mainstream media, saying the exact same thing. Thinking of buying some shares of Uber or Lyft when they go public? Just remember that they are really just taxi companies with an app…and really big VC backing to keep their ride prices low for now.

Motor vehicles and operators all require a license and their use is a privilege that can be taken away. Mercedes estimates are very conservative. Pedestrians and cyclists are banned from interstate highways because of the inherent danger of having them present. Anyone who has spent a couple of winters driving in snow country knows well that road conditions are far less than optimal for days if not weeks after big storms.

Even after plowing, roads can be covered with snow, obscuring any markings. Snow drifts over the road, piles of snow get knocked over, snow falls from overhead branches, etc. Plowed or shoveled snow is left in piles on the side of the roadway until it gets carted away or melts. What about driving in a heavy snow fall, with thick, fat snow flakes? Tens of millions of people have to drive in these conditions every winter. How will they be able to send such a signal yet prevent vandals, hackers, or criminals from doing the same?

Some are technical, some are economic, and some are systemic — based on the fact that our entire current infrastructure is predicated on human drivers. The people pushing this are gadget freaks who hate driving, and big corporations who see only dollar signs. My prediction for There will be no flying cars either. In I will be able to boast about how accurate my prediction was.

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They only need to solve enough problems to make it work where it needs to work and when it needs to work. The UK grinds to a halt with 2mm of snow because infrastructure and drivers never experience snow bad enough for long enough to warrant stronger measures. The same is true for trains which run on rails. I expect 3D road mapping and the Galileo system with accuracy to 1cm will mitigate many visibility issues caused by snowdrifts. The other thing is men who fancy themselves as burly hero types may have ego issues.

As for the rest of the laundry list of problems almost all of these are problems present with human drivers to varying degrees. Someone would hack into whatever system is created for car controls or road controls and crashes and death would prevail. Think college campuses, resorts, possibly even very high density areas such as Manhattan, inner Paris or DC. Special lanes will allow a limited amount of permitted human driven vehicles as necessary. Emergency vehicles would automatically and seamlessly get through.


Regardless, I enjoy driving. I am good at it.